I hoped to post about each category individually, but alas, time and life intervened so I only got through a handful. This has been a crazy awards year. Ultimately, it’s been a positive one for movies because the majority of the Best Picture nominees were grounded, relatively small studio pictures that brought in strong box office receipts. This bodes well for the possibility that studios might take further risks on character dramas once again.
As for the predictions themselves, there’s a few trap categories. If you are one of those people who have said you want to follow my lead in Oscar pools, know that Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Sound Editing are where I feel most in the dark. Keep a few things in mind. Christoph Waltz won a BAFTA and a Golden Globe and he’s never lost when facing De Niro or Jones. Each of those actors have won but Waltz wasn’t competition. Similarly, Emmanuelle Riva beat Lawrence at the BAFTAs and Lawrence hasn’t beaten Riva in any major race. Screenplay is me going with my gut. I know a handful of voters in the Academy and others in the industry who really, really liked Django Unchained. I haven’t heard the same kind of excitement about Zero Dark Thirty and Amour. It’s just a hunch. Best Sound Editing is just a confusing category this year. It may go to Argo because voters want to give it an Oscar for everything that movie is up for. It might go to Zero Dark Thirty because that film uses naturalistic, loud sounds to potent effect (this is the one that deserves it). Skyfall is the biggest and the loudest. For voters who don’t know what this category means, that will play a big role. My guess is Life of Pi, because that film’s a wealth of craft all around. Like Hugo and Avatar, voters may equate the whole of the experience to all the tech elements. That’s also why I think Pi wins for Best Production Design.
Do I feel comfortable predicting Life of Pi to win six Oscar? Not really. But with categories this tight, pick against it at your own risk. Of the 24 movies in the history of the Oscars that have been nominated 11 times, six of them have won five or six awards. Of those six, three DID NOT win Best Picture (The Aviator, Saving Private Ryan, and Hugo). So, Life of Pi would not be in unchartered territory for my predictions to hold true.
Also, I’m thinking that both Zero Dark Thirty and Silver Linings Playbook will be left with no wins. At least one of the major movies this year will have to be shut out. I feel that these were both too middling and unable to generate universal support. I could be entirely wrong, but it seems that the best chance for either of these films to win would be Robert De Niro in Silver Linings.
For fun, here’s five possible shockers:
1. War Witch wins Best Foreign Language Film
2. Michael Haneke wins Best Director
3. Bradley Cooper wins Best Actor
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman wins Best Supporting Actor
5. Silver Linings Playbook wins Best Picture
Now my picks:
BOLD = my pick to win
Best Picture:
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Alt: Silver Linings Playbook
Best Director:
Michael Haneke, Amour
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Alt: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Best Actor:
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Alt: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Actress:
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Alt: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor:
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Alt: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actress:
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Alt: Sally Field, Lincoln
Adapted Screenplay:
Argo, Chris Terrio
Lincoln, Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell
Life of Pi, David McGee
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Benh Zeitlin/Lucy Alibar
Alt: Lincoln, Tony Kushner
Original Screenplay:
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson/Roman Coppola
Flight, John Gatins
Amour, Michael Haneke
Alt: Amour, Michael Haneke
Best Cinematography:
Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall, Roger Deakins
Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda
Django Unchained, Robert Richardson
Anna Karenina, Seamus McGarvey
Alt: Skyfal, Roger Deakins
Best Costume Design:
Mirror Mirror, Eiko Ishioka
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado
Lincoln, Joanna Johnston
Snow White and the Huntsman, Colleen Atwood
Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran
Alt: Mirror Mirror, Eiko Ishioka
Best Production Design:
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Anna Karenina
Les Misérables
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Alt: Anna Karenina
Best Film Editing:
Argo, William Goldenberg
Zero Dark Thirty, William Goldenberg/Dylan Tichenor
Lincoln, Michael Kahn
Life of Pi, Tim Squyres
Silver Linings Playbook, Jay Cassidy/Crispin Struthers
Alt: Zero Dark Thirty, William Goldenberg/Dylan Tichenor
Best Original Score:
John Williams, Lincoln
Argo, Alexandre Desplat
Skyfall, Thomas Newman
Mychael Danna, Life of Pi
Anna Karenina, Dario Marianelli
Alt: Skyfall, Thomas Newman
Best Original Song:
Pi’s Lullaby, Mycheal Danna & Bombay Jayashri (Life of Pi)
Suddenly, Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables)
Everybody Needs a Best Friend, Seth McFarlene (Ted)
Skyfall, Adele (Skyfall)
Before My Time, J. Ralph (Chasing Ice)
Alt: Everybody Needs a Best Friend, Seth McFarlene (Ted)
Best Documentary Feature:
Searching for Sugar Man
How To Survive A Plague
The Gatekeepers
5 Broken Camera
The Invisible War
Alt: How To Survive A Plague
Best Documentary Short:
Kings Point
Redemption
Inocente
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Alt: Open Heart
Best Animated Feature:
ParaNorman
Wreck-It Ralph
Frankenweenie
Brave
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Alt: Wreck-It Ralph
Best Foreign Film:
Amour (Austria)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
Kon-Tiki (Norway)
No (Chile)
War Witch (Canada)
Alt: War Witch (Canada)
Best Visual Effects:
Prometheus
The Avengers
Snow White and the Huntsman
Life of Pi
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Alt: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Best Sound Editing:
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Alt: Skyfall
Best Sound Mixing:
Argo
Life of Pi
Les Misérables
Lincoln
Skyfall
Alt: Life of Pi
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Hitchcock
Les Misérables
Alt: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Live Action Short Film:
Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)
Henry
Alt: Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)
Animated Short Film:
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”
Head Over Heels
Paperman
Alt: Adam and Dog
